Huge winter storm forecast for Jan18 through Jan 22

Issued by The National Weather Service
Flagstaff, AZ
5:23 am MST, Sat., Jan. 16, 2010

... A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA NEXT WEEK...

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN CHANGE IS DRIVEN BY EL NINO. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG WINTER STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA... PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM FLAGSTAFF TO FOREST LAKES... WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

THE FIRST STORM WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET... DECREASING TO 5500 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:

2 TO 6 INCHES ... ... ... . 6000 TO 7000 FEET 6 TO 10 INCHES ... ... ... 7000 FEET AND ABOVE

A SECOND COLDER STORM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET. THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING:

4 TO 10 INCHES ... ... ... 5500 TO 6500 FEET 8 TO 12 INCHES ... ... ... 6500 FEET AND ABOVE

A THIRD AND EVEN STRONGER STORM WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY... LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW... ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THIS STORM IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK AWAY... AND PATTERNS MAY CHANGE. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS STORM.